I am absolutely serious, if any school calls as a freshman we will visit, but my kids will not commit ANYWHERE until the end of their junior year (at the earliest). Because then I will be comfortable with the decision and I will feel like they will be going somewhere that will be a good fit. Before that it is too risky. And trust me, if your kid is good enough, they will wait. Because, if they are not, an early commitment would be a REALLY bad idea. This, but the class will be filled crap is nothing but a scare tactic, they will make room for a kid that they want (even if that mean bumping little Johnny that "committed" when he was 12!
Been there, done that, trust me!