Good post. But I do think your wrong about 1 - thing... There is NO Lack of evidence. It's an arms race, heading for disaster - but the shame of it is the early committed kids will be collateral damage hit the hardest.
Notice schools stock piling on early Offensive Commitments??
Do the math... If a program hands out 6 verbals for 2017 Attackmen, the program effectively locked all 6 players from the recruiting market... 3 years from now, they will be happy with keeping their top 3 players, then drop conveniently drop 3 for grades, SAT scores, or whatever... The poor kid is now a senior, and can't find a suitable college program, because its now too LATE... So don't worry about The Petro's - start worrying about Long Term fit for your kid... Which, btw NOONE KNOWS at 14-15...
Haha, that's funny. I guess your SD on is still hoping to commit? Don't get your hopes up. Schools font drop comitted kids. It's the other way around!