These are some really thoughtful comments, thanks. My son is still in the recruiting process and I think his coach who has a lot of lacrosse credibility said, if you are good enough, the coaches will find a spot and money for you. If not, D3 and have fun...don't stop working. We also know one family whose kid finished his first year on the bench at UVa. I trust what they tell our family, which is coaches will blow up recruiting classes. 15 NLI's in December means that the coaches don't see it for a few early commits...they didn't grow, improve, etc. The scholarship money gets re-shuffled every year. Anyone who believes otherwise is misled. A coach can promise you 50% today and re-evaluate and make 5% later if the kid drops on the depth chart. It can be rough to be a former HS star at a UVa getting $500 a year out of politeness until you decide to accept the bench, quit or transfer. That is a reality few kids will be prepared for, and a reality no proud lacrosse Dads will be ready to accept either. Dial up the college soph kid who just bolted UNC for Towson sometime like my son did...humble pie for lots of IL ranked kids who don't play a lot or at all because they didn't develop. Almost an early commit curse now.
I agree, this early commit stuff is going to be a curse in the long run, trust me, if a kid is a junior or senior and they are a star (even though they were nothing in 8th/9th grade) they will surely end up on a great team and beat out early commits that fizzled out! No one knows what will happen until you get on campus and prove yourself.
