On UNC, here is what I know...I am NOT a UNC insider, but am close to another ACC school and the AD at that school. In summary, I can say that this is something the ADs in the ACC have been very worried about for over a year. In the end, UNC and the conference prays the punishment will be financial (>$100mm) and not a sanction to probation men's basketball or football. Financial is something UNC and the ACC can handle.
The odds that the punishment is money would be anyone's guess. I and others doubt an SMU type death penalty is happening here or will ever happen again. At SMU the entire athletic department was wiped out for decades. I also think the major sanctions the NCAA has handed out have lessened more towards money over program probations as years pass. The NCAA also basically killed Univ of Miami in the 1990s, and is not as keen on killing golden gooses in the big football and b'ball conferences. Penn State was really ugly in terms of what it was, but to be fair the punishment there did fit the crimes and for a first time the NCAA pointed more toward a money truck punishment. Penn State weathered that well and will recover, and that is important because it is what the NCAA wants...money and viability after a price and a punishment are metted out at a Penn State or now a UNC. This is bad, and something is coming for sure against UNC.
In regards to lacrosse, the program at UNC is clean. The Cadwalader report investigated mens's football, men's and women's b'ball, baseball and women's soccer (see full report at http://cdn.swimswam.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/UNC-FINAL-REPORT.pdf). In the end, football and men's b'ball were found to have years of the wrongdoings for academic fraud and the two flagship non-revenue sports mentioned where UNC is a gold standard (baseball and women's soccer) were deemed clean. If I were a UNC commit's family I would pass no worry these wrongdoings went down the corridor into UNC's lax program. That said, money sanctions and probations that are really draconian have one immediate impact, and that is a negative operating budget and other hit to the non-revenue sports. Just the way it is. The downside is that UNC is still a great lax institution, but the that very bad sanctions COULD affect the operating budget of the program for the probation and money sanction punishment years. UNC is very well funded, but it is possible that at worst the team goes to away games in Maryland by bus and not plane. Like the good 'ole days we old farts always had.
I am another rival ACC guy and hate Carolina blue, but with respect. You want your rivals to be the best and bring their best, or a rivalry is nothing. All the best to UNC.
Interesting perspective but I think you've missed the most important point entirely. It's not about the money or the NCAA death penalty. It's about the academic reputation of the school. Shattered. Worthless. Destroyed. All the money in the world can't fix that and it affects every athlete at UNC regardless of whether their particular sport was implicated or not. It's like Wall Street, it only takes a few bad apples to destroy the reputation of the entire firm. Nothing worse than reputational destruction. Will never go away and recruits will go elsewhere, which will kill the athletic department without the NCAA having to do it. They're screwed. Plain and simple. Even if my kid were recruited to play there (he wasn't), what's a UNC athlete's degree worth now? Zero. Besides other UNC alums, who's going to hire them?
