My kid isn't shopping, and neither are we, but this whole thing makes me a bit nervous, and I will bet lots of the coaches are entering into it with some trepidation. I have seen star 14 year olds end up just okay and seen (typically late puberty) kids overtake those kids by senior year. Certainly some of the stud 14 year olds only get better, but I would put it at 50/50.
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Thanks for the thoughtful post. The coaches control the musical chairs thing and it is not hard to get the kids and parents into a frenzy that it is all passing them by quickly. If there is a coaching change in 2 years for a 2017 kid that really wrenches it up for a kid as a senior with all other big programs full. We got some good advice to avoid one Ivy early because "this guy needs to win this year or over" and that proved out, and there is one other Ivy coach of a program that has slipped in last 5-8 years who apparently needs to win this year or he's out. Bottom line is your kid had better love the SCHOOL he is committed to over the program. I think another factor is if the growth of the game takes D1 lacrosse into some great schools in new places (Northwestern, Vandy, Texas, SMU, Rice, Stanford, etc.) then you may see a spate of kids de-committing to go to those places to play lacrosse given the power of the academics.
