If a kid does not play on an elite team, what is the possibility he will play for an MIAA lacrosse powerhouse
You have to square, as a parent, that there's three types of involvement once your kid makes one of these mega rosters. Starting, contributing, and reserve. And unless you're a major donor to the school, it's up to your son to distinguish himself and determine which level he's at, on the roster.
Those 3 levels of play within the MIAA roster will roughly line up with the level of "eliteness" of their club teams. Sometimes the coaches do fall victim to "Shiny Helmet Syndrome" and just guess that a kid with a Crabs helmet is by default, a great athlete, but starting in HS that usually gets sussed out. So, if your son plays for Zingos in 11th grade will he start at an MIAA-A school? Almost 100% no. But he could easily be a reserve player on the bench. For some kids, that is the worst possible outcome. Other kids are tolerant of that role, if they love the team and the team's culture.
However it's important to note that a kid's level of Hoco league play through 8th grade has about zero impact on his potential to play a role as he moves into varsity play in 10th or 11th grade. There's a lot of time, weight room (if he hits it), testosterone, and training between now and when he will realistically make a MIAA-A varsity roster. Also worth considering that many (not all) of the elite clubs will dump their youth rosters between 8th and 10th grade, in favor of out-of-town, proven talent that will help the club shine at NLF and help win the social media game. Crabs, 91, and FCA all have random kids from Texas and New Hampshire and everywhere inbetween (for all you hardo dads who insist your kid "just cannot ever" miss practice, how many 91 MD practices do you think a New Hampshire boarding school student is attending?). In short, it is going to change a lot, in a short amount of time.
And here's the real heresy: there are MIAA players who ride the varsity bench for 3 years and still play in college. There are MIAA players who got cut in 9th and 10th grade and still played D1 (they grew). There are MIAA starters who get recruited to D1 and decide not to play AT ALL. I met a Top 160 / All American kid at the beach last year and he was surprised to get into UC Berkeley, which obviously has no varsity lax, but he was ecstatic to get into his dream school so that was the end of that (he did say he was looking forward to dominating club lax).
Don't get terribly hung up on the inevitability of any of this. Even though I am 100% Team Hit the Wall.
