A new question for the forum... our boys are in 7th grade. In a little more than 3 years, recruiting is going to begin. Each year, teams that formerly played HOCO elite and top MIAA teams matriculate a ton of D1 talent.
What percentage of current (2029) HOCO elite team players do you think will actually develop into these future D1 recruits? Will these teams develop current players or will they simply recruit new talent and turn their rosters over to produce these results?
Interesting question. 8 Elite teams is about 192 players. Looking at the last couple years of recruits on IL it's about 120 kids from DMV going D1. From 7th grade to 10th/11th grade I would estimate 50% roster turnover. Allowing for some recruits to come from non HoCo elite teams, my guess would be about 25%.
I would say this is about spot on… little Johnny who dominated in 4th grade is at serious risk of not becoming “big Johnny” if puberty is not kind to the lad. Strong, fast athletes on AA teams will figure out the stick work, and they will take a lot of those spots in 9th grade and beyond
While I largely agree with the puberty comments, I’d also add that many of these top kids in 7th grade will go on to pursue other sports or drop sports all together.
I'd also add that in most age groups the difference between the top of the Elite division and bottom of the Elite division is pretty large. While each team may average 4 or 5 legit prospects, the top teams may have 5-10 and the bottom will probably be 1 or 2 tops. Pretty similar to the number of prospects coming from the top of the MIAA vs the bottom.
To your point, if you look at lax showcases and combines boasting 40yd dash times for 11th graders, the "fastest" are in the 4.71 range.
The immediate response is always "they don't have the best prospects" but in reality if your son is running closer to a 4.5, he's looking at track, football, or soccer options which are all waaaaay more plentiful than lax, and generally at the same schools.
