I think trajectories of the three bottom elite teams are all different. KP probably will have the toughest time staying in elite given that other elite teams are fairly close to their market and they don’t have a history of retaining high school talent. They have a couple of very good players at some key positions but are pretty thin overall. Kudos to them for playing and competing at elite. BLC probably has an upwards trajectory. They have some good athletes and as they transition to DC Express in a couple of years the coaching will likely pick up and help them recruit players. I’ve seen them play a couple of different times and they are actually pretty good except they hemorrhage points in transition and probably will need either internal improvement or upgrades with the specialists. I think this team will stay in elite and be competitive in the 8th grade year. True Annapolis is in between. They have some very good talent and the coaching seems solid, but they are very thin. I think it could break either way for them in the future.
As a Dad of boys in 2026, 2027, and 2028, I think this analysis is accurate. I am watching the landscape of 7th and 8th grade change before my eyes as families jockey to get on the right team for HS. In two years, DCE likely will be on par with MadLax and NextLevel, and its roster will be totally different than the current BLC 2028 team. If 2026 and 2027 is a guide, there will be plenty of movement among NextLevel, MadLax, and BLC/DCE, plus VLC. The bottom half of the roster of those four teams will be practically a revolving door of families chasing playing time, and in addition there will be more movement than you would guess of players on the top half of those rosters. Plus, there will be holdbacks coming into the class and there is little program loyalty; if a 2027 NextLevel player reclasses, he will not automatically go to NextLevel 2028, but rather he will shop among these four programs for the best fit based on position need and other factors. And, some of the players from those four programs (especially the re-classes) will consider Crabs and Hawks, if their parents can tolerate the drive. Trust me, all these teams will look different by 8th grade.
