not really. if you think you have same chance of playing on duke or tufts, you are insane. think the point was go to best school possible and forget what division it is.
Duke versus Tufts is interesting as the post college non lacrosse potential at both schools is off the charts good. There is no question that an individual player with skill level X is likely to get more playing time at Tufts than Duke. There are plenty of players on Duke's bench who would be considerable contributors at Tufts (but not vice versa). If you believe you will be a star at Duke or are comfortable riding the pines to say "I played D1" the choice is obvious. If not, the choice is more difficult.
Since very few players are going to make a living via lacrosse, the more interesting question is given a NESCAC opportunity which schools in the D1 level provide similar post college potential? In these cases, similar to the above, D1 over NESCAC probably makes sense. For sure, Ivy, Service Academies, JHU, UVA and others come to mind (these are generally top tier lax schools too)
Most D1 schools provide significantly less post college non lacrosse potential than the NESCAC schools. In which case, if you have the academic chops to succeed at NESCAC under what scenarios would you advise your son to attend the D1 school?
Wagner or Williams? VMI or Wesleyan? Jacksonville or Bates? these may be obvious, What about Denver, UMD or Loyola vs. Middlebury, Amherst or Bowdoin?
I am aware that "potential" isn't everything, you can go to a top academic school and fail after you get your degree or attend a less illustrious university and crazy good career success.