Originally Posted by Anonymous
Originally Posted by Anonymous
Looking at potential playoff match ups, I looked at 8 different possible results from this coming weekend. In each of the following scenarios, 91MD over True and Madlax over Looney’s are constant:

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8
FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 1 results in DCE, Madlax, Hawks, Crabs and True having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4, and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seed 3 through 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 2 results in DCE, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, DCE would be the #4 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seed 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – DC Express
#5 – TBD

Scenario 3 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax and DC Express tied at 4 - 4 and vying for the #5 seed. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Next Level would be the #2 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seeds 3 and 4 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6). Madlax would earn the #5 seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs DC Express
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 , #4 – TBD
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 4 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and DC Express tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2). Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4, #5– TBD

Scenario 5 results in Hawks, True, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs and Hawks would be ahead of Madlax and True based on having a higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Hawks would then be the #3 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Crabs. Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 & 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 - Crabs
#5 – TBD

Scenario 6 results in Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #4 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Madlax.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – Crabs
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 7 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax earning the #5 seed at 4 - 4. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seeds 3, 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 8 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and True tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs NL. Hawks would earn Seed #3 based on higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Madlax would earn Playoff Seed 5 based on H2H win (TB #2) vs True.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4 - Hawks
#5– Madlax


There is a correction in Scenario 4. Scenario 4 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, True and DC Express tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2). DC Express and Hawks have higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3) and thus eliminate Madlax and True. DC Express would earn the #4 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) s Hawks.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4 – DC Express
#5 – Hawks

Using the scenarios, actual game results and Poisson distribution to develop playoff probabilities the following is offered. The columns represent the Playoff Seed #, and the rows are the likelihood that team earns that playoff seed. For example, Crabs have a 25% chance of earning #2 seed, and 50% chance of earning the #4 seed with a 75% chance of making the playoffs.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1- - - - 2- - - - -3- - - - -4- - - - -5 - -Overall Likelihood
Team 91 - - - - - - - - -1.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -1.000
Next Level Blue - - - - - -0.000- - 0.750- - - 0.250- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -1.000
Annapolis Hawks Green - 0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.625- - - 0.250- - -0.125- - -1.000
Crabs - - - - - - - - - - -0.000- - 0.250- - - 0.000- - - 0.500- - -0.000- - -0.750
Madlax Capital - - - - - -0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.875- - -0.875
DC Express Black- - - - 0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.125- - - 0.250- - -0.000- - -0.375
True- - - - - - - - - - - - -0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -0.000

Other considerations:
- In order for Crabs to make the playoffs, they either need to win vs NL or FCA must win vs DCE.
- In order for DCE to make the playoffs, they need to win vs FCA and NL win vs Crabs or True win vs Hawks.


This is exactly why I come here. For statistical analysis of 8th grade lacrosse. Cant get much better