I just looked it up and of the 60 or so D1 AA , 5 were not US lacrosse AA in high school so it seems like a better predictor than you are letting on
I am not sure which post you are referencing but there are three teams totaling 48 Division I All-Americans. There are at least 350 US Lacrosse HS All-Americans each year. I will take you at you word when you say that only five of the 48 were not HS AA's but I would not say that being named HS AA is a predictor or indicator of anything. If this year 43 of 48 Division I All-American were also US Lacrosse HS All-Americans that would tell us that approximately 1,357 former HS AA's from the HS graduating classes of 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015 did not go on to become Division I All-Americans. ; )
However, we are talking about Long Island...
13 of the 48 DI AA's are from Long Island (pretty good) and I am pretty sure that all 13 were US Lacrosse All-Americans and most likely Under Armor All-Americans as well. If I am not mistaken there are 19 US Lacrosse All-Americans from Long Island each year (9 - Nassau, 8 - Suffolk, 2 - Private). Under Armour probably selects 10 or so from Long Island each year. It is possible that 63 out of 76 former HS AA's from LI "were not" D1 AA's this year. Some of those HS AA's who were underclassmen this year might become a DI AA down the road as the majority of AA's were upperclassmen.
Here are some numbers / facts...
If you are looking for an indicator as to which Long Island players have the best chance to become an All-American in college the odds are with the players who go to the top college programs.
36 of the 48 All-Americans played for teams that finished the year ranked in the Top 10.
45 of the 48 All-Americans played for teams that finished the year ranked in the Top 20.
1 played for Duke which finished the year ranked 21.
1 played for Hopkins which finished the year ranked 22.
1 played for Towson which was not ranked.
1 Graduate Student.
23 Seniors
13 Juniors
10 Sophomores
1 Freshman
Looking at these numbers it would stand to reason that the top players in HS are the ones who receive major recognition / accolades and are recruited by and choose to attend the schools that are consistently ranked in the Top 10 - 20. Those Top 10 - 20 schools always seem to be the same and the players they recruit prove to be the top players.
