[/quote]this is the second time "sage", a soccer expert, has put up this chart. The first thing that comes to mind is that it is a chart of 2017 players, Freshman. This chart is telling us that before season starts that N.J is taking over as a hotbed over L.I. because, as of February, there is a little over 3% swing in Jerseys' favor in D1 recruiting and he is willing to call this a trend. The other 2 big gainers are Canada and Cali. Canada is no shocker because Lacrosse was the national sport for decades before they changed it to hockey back in the 80's if I'm not mistaken. Cali is a surprise but if you take there 1.4% combined with the other non-traditional, non east coast regions on this list Ohio at -0.7% and colorado -0.1% you come up with a whopping +2.2% gain in freshman recruits in "non traditional" areas as of February. I for one would not consider that a trend until at least that percentage becomes common for high school juniors for at least 2 years. As of today for 2015 recruits the same % from the mentioned areas is about 0.18% . Long Island alone is 0.123%. not exactly a threat [/quote]
With due respect, your post has a few inaccuracies. Lacrosse has never been above hockey in Canada in terms of participation or following. It is accurate that hockey was discovered and played in Thunder Bay Canada nearly a century before hockey was an organized sport in Canada. You are correct that the box game became Canada's secondary winter sport in the 1980's and is immensely popular since.
My point was there is a material edge to the LI, Phila, MD/DC corridor in the 2017 age and up, and that this delta appears to be immaterial at the current U-13s. This corridor includes NJ...my plain error and no slight intended but Northern NJ is I feel part of the NY tri-state cluster and it is not unfair to put Southern NJ and parts of DE in the Philly cluster for simplicity. No slights intended to NJ folk, I meant the NY TO MID ATLANTIC to be a corridor in the comment, nothing more.
Sage correctly pointed out that the dominance of this corridor has been eroding, albiet in small increments, in recent years and the trend showing a lower delta of dominance for the Eastern Atlantic hotbeds is reliable and consistent. The lacrosse world is going rounder each year and that is plainly evident, and I think great for the game.
Instead of the data, use your own two eyes and check out a U-13 tourney bracket of games this Summer. It is astonishing how many great programs and coaches there are in non-hotbeds and how terrific some teams from GA, TX and CA are...among others. People like Liam Banks are changing the game in places like Alabama and Louisiana now.
LI is still fantastic and at a highest quality level. It is a mistake to take any of this as a negative onto LI. Look at it as lacrosse going from an "East Coast prep school" third tier off-the-run sport 10+ years ago at NCAA and HS levels to a "real sport". Wouldn't you feel prouder if LI was a big fish in an ocean rather than a whale stuffed into a mason jar? Game is changing. Be happy.