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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
TheBackOfTheCage #329093 05/05/21 03:07 PM
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Looking at potential playoff match ups, I looked at 8 different possible results from this coming weekend. In each of the following scenarios, 91MD over True and Madlax over Looney’s are constant:

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8
FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 1 results in DCE, Madlax, Hawks, Crabs and True having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4, and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seed 3 through 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 2 results in DCE, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, DCE would be the #4 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seed 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – DC Express
#5 – TBD

Scenario 3 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax and DC Express tied at 4 - 4 and vying for the #5 seed. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Next Level would be the #2 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seeds 3 and 4 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6). Madlax would earn the #5 seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs DC Express
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 , #4 – TBD
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 4 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and DC Express tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2). Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4, #5– TBD

Scenario 5 results in Hawks, True, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs and Hawks would be ahead of Madlax and True based on having a higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Hawks would then be the #3 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Crabs. Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 & 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 - Crabs
#5 – TBD

Scenario 6 results in Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #4 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Madlax.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – Crabs
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 7 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax earning the #5 seed at 4 - 4. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seeds 3, 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 8 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and True tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs NL. Hawks would earn Seed #3 based on higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Madlax would earn Playoff Seed 5 based on H2H win (TB #2) vs True.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4 - Hawks
#5– Madlax

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
Anonymous #329098 05/05/21 03:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Anonymous
DC Express Black is not doing well! Not sure if they are paying attention, but their Orange team should be in the Elite division instead. Maybe that was the plan all along! Unstoppable offense! Middies are best in class, and couple of attacks are really dominating. Way to go Orange!

Why so bitter about not making Black? Be happy in Orange, at least your son gets some playing time there.

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
Anonymous #329105 05/05/21 04:22 PM
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And by all means you are entitled to your own opinion. They have some very talented young men and have already posted wins in the past year or so against teams like LI Express, Hawks, Next Level, West Coast Starz Gold, etc. Thus I do not think my statement is that far fetched. So I disagree with your strong disagreement, recognizing they have also logged some very questionable losses. I believe scheme and potentially too much individual play may work against them, but again just my opinion. Solid squad.

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
Anonymous #329127 05/06/21 06:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Anonymous
No detest to you But fca does not have what It takes to be great. I strongly disagree with you when you said fca could be anyone in the country when they are playing their best

The only team they can’t beat is Team 91 MD which is true of all 2025s.

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
Anonymous #329136 05/06/21 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Anonymous
Looking at potential playoff match ups, I looked at 8 different possible results from this coming weekend. In each of the following scenarios, 91MD over True and Madlax over Looney’s are constant:

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8
FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 1 results in DCE, Madlax, Hawks, Crabs and True having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4, and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seed 3 through 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 2 results in DCE, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, DCE would be the #4 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seed 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – DC Express
#5 – TBD

Scenario 3 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax and DC Express tied at 4 - 4 and vying for the #5 seed. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Next Level would be the #2 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seeds 3 and 4 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6). Madlax would earn the #5 seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs DC Express
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 , #4 – TBD
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 4 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and DC Express tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2). Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4, #5– TBD

Scenario 5 results in Hawks, True, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs and Hawks would be ahead of Madlax and True based on having a higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Hawks would then be the #3 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Crabs. Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 & 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 - Crabs
#5 – TBD

Scenario 6 results in Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #4 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Madlax.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – Crabs
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 7 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax earning the #5 seed at 4 - 4. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seeds 3, 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 8 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and True tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs NL. Hawks would earn Seed #3 based on higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Madlax would earn Playoff Seed 5 based on H2H win (TB #2) vs True.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4 - Hawks
#5– Madlax
Dude you have WAY too much time on your hands. Collecting unemployment?

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
TheBackOfTheCage #329144 05/06/21 08:58 AM
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Dude you have WAY too much time on your hands. Collecting unemployment?


Yes. Government pays me more to stay home than go to work!!!!

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
Anonymous #329177 05/06/21 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Anonymous
Looking at potential playoff match ups, I looked at 8 different possible results from this coming weekend. In each of the following scenarios, 91MD over True and Madlax over Looney’s are constant:

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8
FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 1 results in DCE, Madlax, Hawks, Crabs and True having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4, and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seed 3 through 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 2 results in DCE, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, DCE would be the #4 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seed 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – DC Express
#5 – TBD

Scenario 3 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax and DC Express tied at 4 - 4 and vying for the #5 seed. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Next Level would be the #2 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seeds 3 and 4 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6). Madlax would earn the #5 seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs DC Express
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 , #4 – TBD
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 4 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and DC Express tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2). Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4, #5– TBD

Scenario 5 results in Hawks, True, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs and Hawks would be ahead of Madlax and True based on having a higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Hawks would then be the #3 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Crabs. Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 & 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 - Crabs
#5 – TBD

Scenario 6 results in Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #4 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Madlax.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – Crabs
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 7 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax earning the #5 seed at 4 - 4. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seeds 3, 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 8 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and True tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs NL. Hawks would earn Seed #3 based on higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Madlax would earn Playoff Seed 5 based on H2H win (TB #2) vs True.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4 - Hawks
#5– Madlax


There is a correction in Scenario 4. Scenario 4 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, True and DC Express tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2). DC Express and Hawks have higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3) and thus eliminate Madlax and True. DC Express would earn the #4 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) s Hawks.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4 – DC Express
#5 – Hawks

Using the scenarios, actual game results and Poisson distribution to develop playoff probabilities the following is offered. The columns represent the Playoff Seed #, and the rows are the likelihood that team earns that playoff seed. For example, Crabs have a 25% chance of earning #2 seed, and 50% chance of earning the #4 seed with a 75% chance of making the playoffs.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1- - - - 2- - - - -3- - - - -4- - - - -5 - -Overall Likelihood
Team 91 - - - - - - - - -1.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -1.000
Next Level Blue - - - - - -0.000- - 0.750- - - 0.250- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -1.000
Annapolis Hawks Green - 0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.625- - - 0.250- - -0.125- - -1.000
Crabs - - - - - - - - - - -0.000- - 0.250- - - 0.000- - - 0.500- - -0.000- - -0.750
Madlax Capital - - - - - -0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.875- - -0.875
DC Express Black- - - - 0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.125- - - 0.250- - -0.000- - -0.375
True- - - - - - - - - - - - -0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -0.000

Other considerations:
- In order for Crabs to make the playoffs, they either need to win vs NL or FCA must win vs DCE.
- In order for DCE to make the playoffs, they need to win vs FCA and NL win vs Crabs or True win vs Hawks.

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
Anonymous #329206 05/06/21 08:49 PM
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Sick amount of work and effort right here!

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
Anonymous #329212 05/06/21 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Anonymous
Originally Posted by Anonymous
Looking at potential playoff match ups, I looked at 8 different possible results from this coming weekend. In each of the following scenarios, 91MD over True and Madlax over Looney’s are constant:

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8
FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 1 results in DCE, Madlax, Hawks, Crabs and True having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4, and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seed 3 through 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 2 results in DCE, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, DCE would be the #4 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seed 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – DC Express
#5 – TBD

Scenario 3 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax and DC Express tied at 4 - 4 and vying for the #5 seed. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Next Level would be the #2 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seeds 3 and 4 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6). Madlax would earn the #5 seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs DC Express
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 , #4 – TBD
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 4 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and DC Express tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2). Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4, #5– TBD

Scenario 5 results in Hawks, True, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs and Hawks would be ahead of Madlax and True based on having a higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Hawks would then be the #3 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Crabs. Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 & 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 - Crabs
#5 – TBD

Scenario 6 results in Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #4 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Madlax.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – Crabs
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 7 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax earning the #5 seed at 4 - 4. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seeds 3, 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 8 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and True tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs NL. Hawks would earn Seed #3 based on higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Madlax would earn Playoff Seed 5 based on H2H win (TB #2) vs True.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4 - Hawks
#5– Madlax


There is a correction in Scenario 4. Scenario 4 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, True and DC Express tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2). DC Express and Hawks have higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3) and thus eliminate Madlax and True. DC Express would earn the #4 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) s Hawks.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4 – DC Express
#5 – Hawks

Using the scenarios, actual game results and Poisson distribution to develop playoff probabilities the following is offered. The columns represent the Playoff Seed #, and the rows are the likelihood that team earns that playoff seed. For example, Crabs have a 25% chance of earning #2 seed, and 50% chance of earning the #4 seed with a 75% chance of making the playoffs.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1- - - - 2- - - - -3- - - - -4- - - - -5 - -Overall Likelihood
Team 91 - - - - - - - - -1.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -1.000
Next Level Blue - - - - - -0.000- - 0.750- - - 0.250- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -1.000
Annapolis Hawks Green - 0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.625- - - 0.250- - -0.125- - -1.000
Crabs - - - - - - - - - - -0.000- - 0.250- - - 0.000- - - 0.500- - -0.000- - -0.750
Madlax Capital - - - - - -0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.875- - -0.875
DC Express Black- - - - 0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.125- - - 0.250- - -0.000- - -0.375
True- - - - - - - - - - - - -0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -0.000

Other considerations:
- In order for Crabs to make the playoffs, they either need to win vs NL or FCA must win vs DCE.
- In order for DCE to make the playoffs, they need to win vs FCA and NL win vs Crabs or True win vs Hawks.


This is exactly why I come here. For statistical analysis of 8th grade lacrosse. Cant get much better

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
TheBackOfTheCage #329216 05/06/21 11:00 PM
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Nobody unemployed could afford to pay for "elite" lacrosse for 8th graders. Likely someone that makes so much money they have other people doing all their work.

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
TheBackOfTheCage #329355 05/08/21 02:40 PM
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How many teams get in? 4 or 5?

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
Anonymous #329357 05/08/21 05:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Anonymous
How many teams get in? 4 or 5?

For divisions with 9 teams 5 will get in and #4 vs #5 will play on Friday evening next week.

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
Anonymous #329365 05/08/21 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Anonymous
Originally Posted by Anonymous
Looking at potential playoff match ups, I looked at 8 different possible results from this coming weekend. In each of the following scenarios, 91MD over True and Madlax over Looney’s are constant:

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA DCE over FCA
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8
FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE FCA over DCE
NL over Crabs NL over Crabs Crabs over NL Crabs over NL
True over Hawks Hawks over True Hawks over True True over Hawks

Scenario 1 results in DCE, Madlax, Hawks, Crabs and True having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4, and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seed 3 through 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 2 results in DCE, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, DCE would be the #4 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seed 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – DC Express
#5 – TBD

Scenario 3 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax and DC Express tied at 4 - 4 and vying for the #5 seed. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Next Level would be the #2 Seed based on Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Playoff seeding for Seeds 3 and 4 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6). Madlax would earn the #5 seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs DC Express
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 , #4 – TBD
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 4 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and DC Express tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2). Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4, #5– TBD

Scenario 5 results in Hawks, True, Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #3, #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs and Hawks would be ahead of Madlax and True based on having a higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Hawks would then be the #3 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Crabs. Playoff seeding for Seeds 4 & 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 - Crabs
#5 – TBD

Scenario 6 results in Madlax, and Crabs having the same records at 4 wins and 4 losses and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #4 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs Madlax.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3 – Hawks
#4 – Crabs
#5 – Madlax

Scenario 7 results in Next Level, Hawks and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds, and Madlax earning the #5 seed at 4 - 4. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, playoff seeding for Seeds 3, 4 and 5 would be determined by either Total Goals Scored Against (TB #5) or Coin Flip (TB #6).
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Next Level
#3, #4, #5 - TBD

Scenario 8 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, and True tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) vs NL. Hawks would earn Seed #3 based on higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3). Madlax would earn Playoff Seed 5 based on H2H win (TB #2) vs True.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4 - Hawks
#5– Madlax


There is a correction in Scenario 4. Scenario 4 results in Next Level and Crabs having the same records at 5 wins and 3 losses and vying for the #2 and #3, and Hawks, Madlax, True and DC Express tied at 4 – 4 and vying for the #4 and #5 seeds. Based on GHCLC tie-breaking procedures and depending on actual scores, Crabs would be the #2 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2). DC Express and Hawks have higher Winning % of Opponents Beaten (TB#3) and thus eliminate Madlax and True. DC Express would earn the #4 Seed based on H2H win (TB #2) s Hawks.
#1 – 91MD
#2 – Crabs
#3 – Next Level
#4 – DC Express
#5 – Hawks

Using the scenarios, actual game results and Poisson distribution to develop playoff probabilities the following is offered. The columns represent the Playoff Seed #, and the rows are the likelihood that team earns that playoff seed. For example, Crabs have a 25% chance of earning #2 seed, and 50% chance of earning the #4 seed with a 75% chance of making the playoffs.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1- - - - 2- - - - -3- - - - -4- - - - -5 - -Overall Likelihood
Team 91 - - - - - - - - -1.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -1.000
Next Level Blue - - - - - -0.000- - 0.750- - - 0.250- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -1.000
Annapolis Hawks Green - 0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.625- - - 0.250- - -0.125- - -1.000
Crabs - - - - - - - - - - -0.000- - 0.250- - - 0.000- - - 0.500- - -0.000- - -0.750
Madlax Capital - - - - - -0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.875- - -0.875
DC Express Black- - - - 0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.125- - - 0.250- - -0.000- - -0.375
True- - - - - - - - - - - - -0.000- - 0.000- - - 0.000- - - 0.000- - -0.000- - -0.000

Other considerations:
- In order for Crabs to make the playoffs, they either need to win vs NL or FCA must win vs DCE.
- In order for DCE to make the playoffs, they need to win vs FCA and NL win vs Crabs or True win vs Hawks.

So now that the results are in we can finalize the 2025 Elite playoffs. Based on the tie breaking procedures, the following are the projected to be the seeds/teams for the playoffs:

#1 - Team 91 MD (8-0)
#2 - Next Level (6-2)
#3 - Annapolis Hawks (5-3)
#4 - DC Express Black (4-4, TB#3 Highest Winning % of Opponents Beaten)
#5 Crabs (4-4, TB#2 Head-to-Head win vs. Madlax)

#4 DC Express should play #5 Crabs at 8pm on Friday at Troy #1.

#4 vs #5 winner should play #1 Team 91 MD at 5pm on Saturday at Troy #1
#2 Next Level should play #3 Hawks at 6:30pm on Saturday at Troy #1

Championship will be Sunday at 4:30pm at Troy #1

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
TheBackOfTheCage #329373 05/09/21 07:30 AM
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Where did the game times come from?

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Re: Boys 2025 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region
Anonymous #329382 05/09/21 01:43 PM
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The head to head tiebreaker would be thrown out since MadLax beat DC Express, Crabs beat MadLax, and DC Express beat Crabs. DC Express would be in based on the win against Annapolis Hawks. I believe this will all come down to GA (since win % of opponents beaten would be the same/along with win percentage of all opponents), which MadLax would have the edge in. Thus Crabs will be on the outside looking in (crazy to think, had they scored that goal in OT this weekend that they'd be the #2 seed.....and now they are the #6.)

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