Gary - I will give you my son's experience as it relates to D3. He's a current senior (class of 2019) who stopping playing club lacrosse in 9th grade when he realized he was not going to be a D1 player. It was the hayday of early recruiting. He is on age and played at a pretty high level (Philly Freshman Showcase and Maverik Showtime invite) but saw others around him committing early and my son had limited D1 looks. The difference between many D1 commits and good D3 commits is pretty razor thin.
He went to 2-3 D3 showcases the last two summers (Elite 180, Good 2 Great, etc) and a few prospect days of of school he was focused (NESCAC, Swarthmore, Haverford). We were also the family that went to the Princeton, Georgetown, Yale, Colgate, Army, etc prospect days in 8th and 9th grade hoping to garner interest. Lots of time and money spent!
He committed this summer to a top 10 liberal arts school to play D3 lacrosse. He is beyond thrilled. It is not easy to get committed for D3 without a club program but clearly happens. My son came across a number of kids in similiar situations who were looking at elite liberal arts schools but many more kids who played for club programs across the country.
Good luck to you and your son.