I would be negative too if I had been as completely wrong ^ as you were about the BMS goalie.
she won't play much until her junior year because she is not better than the 2 goalies ahead of her. that is not negative but reality.
What top program doesn't have this situation? If a program is expecting a goalie to step on campus and start, they messed up in their recruiting a few years prior. Even if a goalie used that as a factor, a quick transfer can ruin that plan, see BC as example.
Chose the school based on the environment, coaches, academics and program not on the depth chart of your Junior year in HS.